Zlin 1-3 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Bohemians 1905 travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 3W 0D 3L from 6 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Letná, Zlin have gone 1W 0D 2L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Letná this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 1W 3D 2L from 6 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.83. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Zlin are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 50% and Bohemians 1905 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zlin 67% | Bohemians 1905 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.54 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.864 / defence 1.258 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.816 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.155. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Zlin games / 6 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 46% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 29%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 3.45. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 33% | Bohemians 1905 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 46% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Zlin 1.54 / Bohemians 1905 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.864 / def 1.258 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.816 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Zlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bohemians 1905 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Zlin 1 - 3 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 46% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zlin and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.86x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
46%
2.19
25%
3.97
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.73
1.19
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Zlin and 1.19 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 0D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zlin's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.50 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Zlin's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Zlin or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
2
Draws
7
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 33%, Bohemians 1905 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zlin and 67% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zlin have failed to score in 33% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Zlin's recent matches and 67% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zlin's matches and 67% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Zlin and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 1-3 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.54 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.19 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.86 / defence 1.26 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.82 / defence 1.33, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 46% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 29%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 67%, Bohemians 1905 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.