Zbrojovka Brno 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 43%, yet in-form Zlin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to ADAX INVEST Arena to face Zbrojovka Brno in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Zbrojovka Brno (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zbrojovka Brno's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at ADAX INVEST Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Zbrojovka Brno are significantly better at ADAX INVEST Arena than their overall form suggests.
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Zlin have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Zlin are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Zbrojovka Brno register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Zlin in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Zbrojovka Brno 1W, Zlin 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Zbrojovka Brno goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zbrojovka Brno 68% and Zlin 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zbrojovka Brno 68% | Zlin 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.60 xG and Zlin 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.797 / defence 1.250 | Zlin attack 0.825 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Zbrojovka Brno's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Zbrojovka Brno's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Zbrojovka Brno games / 60 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Draw 27% | Zlin 30%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Zlin 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zlin (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 80% | Zlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: ADAX INVEST Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Draw 27% | Zlin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.60 / Zlin 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.797 / def 1.250 | Zlin attack 0.825 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Zlin xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin?
Zbrojovka Brno 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 43% chance of winning, Zlin a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin?
Record (2 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 1W | Draws 1 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Zlin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zbrojovka Brno's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.82x) against Zbrojovka Brno's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.67
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.89
1.29
Zlin xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
6%
16.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.29 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 8D 18L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.97 PPG from 34 outings (7W 12D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Zbrojovka Brno against 0.97 for Zlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 4W 4D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.62 points per game from 16 outings (1W 7D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.26 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Zlin in 71%.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 8W 8D 18L in their last 34 games (0.94 PPG), while Zlin have gone 7W 12D 15L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Zlin away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 1.00 PPG; Zlin away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Zbrojovka Brno
2
Draws
0
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin?
From 3 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Zlin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when Zbrojovka Brno 0-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin?
Zbrojovka Brno have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Zbrojovka Brno, 69% for Zlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Zbrojovka Brno and 69% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 69% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 69% of Zlin's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Zlin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zbrojovka Brno's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zbrojovka Brno and Zlin finished level at 0-0 at ADAX INVEST Arena, Relegation Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.60 xG and Zlin 1.29 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zbrojovka Brno fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.80 / defence 1.25 against Zlin attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Draw 27% | Zlin 30%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 68%, Zlin 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zlin's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zbrojovka Brno 0.94 PPG, Zlin 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.