Teplice 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Zbrojovka Brno at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 24 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zbrojovka Brno away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Teplice carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Teplice have won 0, Zbrojovka Brno 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Zbrojovka Brno in-play tendencies (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 70% and Zbrojovka Brno 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Teplice 70% | Zbrojovka Brno 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.48 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.812 / defence 1.162 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.754 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 60 Teplice games / 30 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 45% | Draw 29% | Zbrojovka Brno 26%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Zbrojovka Brno 3.85. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 70% | Zbrojovka Brno 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 45% | Draw 29% | Zbrojovka Brno 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Teplice 1.48 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.812 / def 1.162 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.754 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Teplice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Zbrojovka Brno xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Teplice 1 - 1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 45% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno?
Record (2 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 2 | Zbrojovka Brno 0W.
What form are Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Teplice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.81) and Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.46
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.58
1.10
Zbrojovka Brno xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
6%
16.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Teplice and 1.10 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Teplice come into this having played 33 games, going 10W 8D 15L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Zbrojovka Brno sit at 0.94 PPG from 33 outings (8W 7D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.15 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Teplice's home form reads 7W 6D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Teplice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zbrojovka Brno have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.21 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Zbrojovka Brno in 67%.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Zbrojovka Brno
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 8W 7D 18L in their last 33 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Teplice's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.59 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Teplice's record when hosting Zbrojovka Brno specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Teplice
3
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 3 meetings on record, Teplice have won 0, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2023, when Teplice 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 65%, Zbrojovka Brno 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Teplice) and 59% (Zbrojovka Brno). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zbrojovka Brno in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Zbrojovka Brno?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Teplice's games and 59% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Teplice's matches and 59% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno finished level at 1-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.48 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.10 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 45% | Draw 29% | Zbrojovka Brno 26%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 70%, Zbrojovka Brno 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.15 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.