Teplice 5-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Teplice. A 0.50 PPG lead over Pardubice (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 48% versus Pardubice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 61% | Pardubice 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 2.17 xG and Pardubice 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.023 / defence 1.011 | Pardubice attack 0.752 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.369. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Teplice games / 39 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 61% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 15%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Pardubice 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 61% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Teplice 2.17 / Pardubice 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.023 / def 1.011 | Pardubice attack 0.752 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Teplice (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Pardubice xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Pardubice kick off?
Teplice vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Teplice 5 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Teplice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Pardubice part of?
Teplice vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 61% chance of winning, Pardubice a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Teplice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 1.02x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.75x) against Teplice's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.07
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.21
1.04
Pardubice xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
11%
8.77
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
2%
59.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Teplice and 1.04 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 10D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.91 PPG from 44 outings (10W 10D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Teplice against 0.91 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 6W 5D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (6W 1D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.05 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 11W 10D 23L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 10W 10D 24L in their last 44 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Pardubice away?
Teplice's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.05 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Pardubice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 46%, Pardubice 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Teplice and 77% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Teplice's recent matches and 64% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Teplice's matches and 77% of Pardubice's.
Do Teplice and Pardubice tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Teplice run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Pardubice 5-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 2.17 xG and Pardubice 1.04 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Pardubice attack 0.75 / defence 1.48, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 61% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 15%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 61%, Pardubice 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.98 PPG, Pardubice 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.