Teplice 1-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Teplice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Teplice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Pardubice have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Teplice against 1.10 for Pardubice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Teplice have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Pardubice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 1–3 with Pardubice winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Teplice — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Pardubice — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 55% versus Pardubice 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 63% | Pardubice 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.52 xG and Pardubice 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.799 / defence 1.178 | Pardubice attack 0.802 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Teplice's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 28%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Pardubice 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 70% | Pardubice 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights