Teplice 1-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Teplice against 1.20 for Mlada Boleslav. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Teplice have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Mlada Boleslav in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 55% versus Mlada Boleslav 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 64% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.66 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.834 / defence 1.227 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.809 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.215. Data: 58 Teplice games / 58 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 48% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 3.70. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 70% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 48% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Teplice 1.66 / Mlada Boleslav 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.834 / def 1.227 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.809 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Teplice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Mlada Boleslav xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 16:30 on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Teplice 1 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 48% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Teplice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (1 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 0 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.81x) against Teplice's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
48%
2.10
25%
4.01
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.86
1.21
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
5%
19.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Teplice and 1.21 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 62 games, going 17W 12D 33L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.34 PPG from 62 outings (23W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Teplice against 1.34 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 10W 7D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (11W 4D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.45 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 17W 12D 33L in their last 62 games (1.02 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 23W 14D 25L in their last 62 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Teplice's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.19 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 52%, Mlada Boleslav 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Teplice) and 61% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Teplice's recent matches and 58% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Teplice's matches and 61% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Teplice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 29, as Teplice and Mlada Boleslav drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.66 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.21 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.83 / defence 1.23 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 48% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 27%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 64%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.02 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.