Teplice 1-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 20 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Karviná have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Teplice's favour (1.20 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Teplice 0W, Karviná 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Karviná 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 62% | Karviná 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.12 xG and Karviná 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.803 / defence 1.112 | Karviná attack 0.656 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.199. Data: 21 Teplice games / 21 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 31% | Karviná 28%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Karviná 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Karviná 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 31% | Karviná 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Teplice 1.12 / Karviná 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.803 / def 1.112 | Karviná attack 0.656 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Teplice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Karviná xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Karviná kick off?
Teplice vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Karviná?
Teplice 1 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Teplice vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Karviná part of?
Teplice vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 41% chance of winning, Karviná a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Teplice and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Karviná?
Record (1 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 1 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Teplice and Karviná in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Karviná (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.80) and Karviná's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.66x) against Teplice's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.27
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.99
0.87
Karviná xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Teplice and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Teplice and 0.87 for Karviná, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 5W 2D 14L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 1W 6D 14L from 21 games, 0.43 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Teplice against 0.43 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.86 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Karviná in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 5W 2D 14L in their last 21 games (0.81 PPG), while Karviná have gone 1W 6D 14L in their last 21 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Karviná away?
Teplice's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.00 PPG; Karviná away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Teplice
4
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Karviná?
From 9 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Karviná have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Karviná?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 50%, Karviná 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Teplice) and 40% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 30% of games; Karviná in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Teplice's recent matches and 30% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Teplice's recent games and 40% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Karviná tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Karviná in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Karviná 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Karviná 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.12 xG and Karviná 0.87 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Karviná landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against Karviná attack 0.66 / defence 1.18, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 41% | Draw 31% | Karviná 28%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 62%, Karviná 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.81 PPG, Karviná 0.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.