Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Teplice have won 1, Hradec Králové 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 59% versus Hradec Králové 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 54% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.04 xG and Hradec Králové 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.893 / defence 0.911 | Hradec Králové attack 0.737 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Hradec Králové's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 28%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Hradec Králové 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Hradec Králové 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Teplice 1.04 / Hradec Králové 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.893 / def 0.911 | Hradec Králové attack 0.737 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Teplice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Hradec Králové xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Teplice 0 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Teplice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové is a Middle Play-offs - Final fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 38% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Teplice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Record (4 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 3W.
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.89x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
38%
2.67
34%
2.92
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.91
0.87
Hradec Králové xG
2.67
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Teplice and 0.87 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 22W 17D 27L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Hradec Králové's form line: 24W 16D 26L from 66 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.26 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.58 PPG from 33 outings (13W 13D 7L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 10W 10D 13L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 22W 17D 27L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 24W 16D 26L in their last 66 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Teplice's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.58 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Hradec Králové won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Teplice
1
Draws
7
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 52%, Hradec Králové 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 46% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 27% of games; Hradec Králové in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Teplice's recent matches and 48% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 46% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Middle Play-offs - Final, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.04 xG and Hradec Králové 0.87 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Hradec Králové attack 0.74 / defence 0.76, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 38% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 28%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 54%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.26 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.