Teplice 0-5 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 1.10 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Teplice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Baník Ostrava in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Teplice have won 1, Baník Ostrava 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 50% and Baník Ostrava 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 64% | Baník Ostrava 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.58 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.041 / defence 1.017 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.890 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.281. Data: 47 Teplice games / 47 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 25%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Baník Ostrava 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 60% | Baník Ostrava 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Teplice 1.58 / Baník Ostrava 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.041 / def 1.017 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.890 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Teplice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Baník Ostrava xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Teplice 0 - 5 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 44% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Teplice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (1 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 0W.
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 1.04x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.24
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.74
1.16
Baník Ostrava xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
5%
19.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Teplice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Teplice and 1.16 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 10D 28L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 20W 16D 16L from 52 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (9W 5D 12L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 10D 9L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.67 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 71%.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 14W 10D 28L in their last 52 games (1.00 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 20W 16D 16L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Teplice's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.23 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Teplice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 50%, Baník Ostrava 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Teplice) and 54% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Teplice's games and 65% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Teplice's matches and 54% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Teplice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Teplice 0-5 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.58 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.16 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.16 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 44% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 25%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Baník Ostrava win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 64%, Baník Ostrava 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.