Teplice vs Artis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Artis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Artis travel to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to take on Teplice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 4W 3D 3L at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season.
Artis — All Games: 1W 1D 6L from 8 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Artis's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Teplice are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Teplice trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Artis trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 38% versus Artis 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 38% | Artis 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.80 xG and Artis 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.246 / defence 1.143 | Artis attack 0.801 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.361. Data: 36 Teplice games / 6 Artis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 51% | Draw 23% | Artis 26%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Artis 3.85. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Artis 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 51% | Draw 23% | Artis 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Teplice 1.80 / Artis 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.246 / def 1.143 | Artis attack 0.801 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Teplice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Artis xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Artis kick off?
Teplice vs Artis is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Artis part of?
Teplice vs Artis is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 51% chance of winning, Artis a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Teplice and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Artis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Artis in?
Teplice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Artis (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 1.25x the league average against Artis's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Artis's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
51%
1.98
23%
4.33
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.05
1.25
Artis xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
4%
23.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Teplice and 1.25 for Artis, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Artis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Teplice have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 5W 1D 2L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Artis's form line: 1W 1D 6L from 8 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Teplice are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Artis.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Artis have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.50 PPG overall record — Artis travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 0.88 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Artis in 62%.
Defensively: Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Artis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Artis in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Artis have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Artis away?
Teplice's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.75 PPG; Artis away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Teplice or Artis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Artis in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 50%, Artis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Teplice) and 50% (Artis).
On the defensive side: Artis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Artis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Teplice's recent matches and 50% of Artis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Teplice's recent games and 50% of Artis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Artis tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Artis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.