Sparta Praha 3-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Sparta Praha welcome Zlin to epet ARENA. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 July 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Praha — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 7W 2D 1L at epet ARENA — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Sparta Praha have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 7 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Zlin, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Zlin in-play tendencies (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 57% versus Zlin 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 60% | Zlin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.12 xG and Zlin 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.217 / defence 0.990 | Zlin attack 0.926 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.316. Data: 31 Sparta Praha games / 31 Zlin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 58% | Draw 21% | Zlin 21%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Zlin 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 60% | Zlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 58% | Draw 21% | Zlin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Sparta Praha 2.12 / Zlin 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.217 / def 0.990 | Zlin attack 0.926 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Zlin xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Zlin kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Zlin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 31 July 2026 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Sparta Praha 3 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Zlin part of?
Sparta Praha vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 58% chance of winning, Zlin a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sparta Praha and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
Record (8 meetings): Sparta Praha 7W | Draws 1 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Zlin in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
58%
1.71
21%
4.85
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.33
1.21
Zlin xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
12%
8.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
3%
39.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.21 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 22W 7D 6L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin's form line: 10W 8D 17L from 35 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.31 PPG from 16 outings (11W 4D 1L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 3W 4D 9L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.14 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Zlin in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 22W 7D 6L in their last 35 games (2.09 PPG), while Zlin have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Zlin away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.31 PPG; Zlin away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Zlin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sparta Praha won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
0
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Zlin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Sparta Praha 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 75%, Zlin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Sparta Praha) and 38% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 31%; Zlin in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sparta Praha's games and 44% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 38% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Zlin tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Zlin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Zlin 3-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.12 xG and Zlin 1.21 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.22 / defence 0.99 against Zlin attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 58% | Draw 21% | Zlin 21%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, Zlin 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Zlin's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.