Sparta Praha 4-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's home record at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena: 6W 1D 0L from 7 Czech Liga appearances (2.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's away record: 0W 1D 6L from 7 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 1.60 PPG lead over Teplice (2.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 54% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 54% | Teplice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.02 xG and Teplice 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 0.984 / defence 0.784 | Teplice attack 0.712 / defence 1.579. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.268. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.579 — this is suppressing Sparta Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sparta Praha's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 13 Sparta Praha games / 13 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 68% | Draw 20% | Teplice 12%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Teplice 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 29% | Teplice 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 68% | Draw 20% | Teplice 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 44% | xG Sparta Praha 2.02 / Teplice 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 0.984 / def 0.784 | Teplice attack 0.712 / def 1.579 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Teplice xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Sparta Praha 4 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Teplice part of?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 68% chance of winning, Teplice a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sparta Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Teplice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sparta Praha's attack rating (0.98) and Teplice's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.71x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.04
12%
8.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.72
0.71
Teplice xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
8.28
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
2%
62.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.71 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 9W 3D 1L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 1W 2D 10L from 13 games, 0.38 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.71 PPG from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 0W 1D 6L from 7 away games — 0.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.77 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 9W 3D 1L in their last 13 games (2.31 PPG), while Teplice have gone 1W 2D 10L in their last 13 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Teplice away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.71 PPG; Teplice away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Teplice in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
4
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 6, Teplice have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 29%, Teplice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sparta Praha) and 71% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Teplice in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 57% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 71% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Teplice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Teplice 4-2 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.02 xG and Teplice 0.71 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 0.98 / defence 0.78 against Teplice attack 0.71 / defence 1.58, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 68% | Draw 20% | Teplice 12%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 54%, Teplice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.