Sparta Praha 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to epet ARENA to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Sparta Praha (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sparta Praha's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Teplice's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Sparta Praha against 1.00 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Sparta Praha have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Teplice managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2024, ended Sparta Praha 4–1 Teplice — a Sparta Praha win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sparta Praha and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 62% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 67% | Teplice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.52 xG and Teplice 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.064 / defence 1.263 | Teplice attack 0.947 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.154. Sparta Praha's defence rating of 1.263 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 44 games and Teplice's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 38% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.60 | Draw 3.37 | Teplice 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Sparta Praha 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 80% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 38% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Sparta Praha 1.52 / Teplice 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.064 / def 1.263 | Teplice attack 0.947 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Teplice xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Sparta Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Sparta Praha 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Teplice part of?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 38% chance of winning, Teplice a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sparta Praha and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sparta Praha's attack rating (1.06) and Teplice's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.95x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Sparta Praha's last 44 games and Teplice's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
38%
2.60
30%
3.37
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.90
1.38
Teplice xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
7%
14.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Praha vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.38 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 34W 8D 6L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Teplice's form line: 15W 10D 23L from 48 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.30 PPG from their last 23 home games (16W 5D 2L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 7W 2D 14L from their last 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.12 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Sparta Praha (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Sparta Praha vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 34W 8D 6L in their last 48 games (2.29 PPG), while Teplice have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Teplice away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.30 PPG; Teplice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Teplice in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sparta Praha and Teplice, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Teplice 0-3 Sparta Praha on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
4
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Praha vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Praha have won 6, Teplice have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Sparta Praha 4-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 65%, Teplice 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sparta Praha and 61% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Teplice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Praha and Teplice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sparta Praha's games and 52% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Praha and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sparta Praha's matches and 61% of Teplice's.
Do Sparta Praha and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 52% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.52 xG and Teplice 1.38 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.06 / defence 1.26 against Teplice attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 38% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 67%, Teplice 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.