Sparta Praha 2-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Praha vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Plzen travel to Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena to take on Sparta Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Praha stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 9W 1D 0L at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 6W 1D 2L from 9 away outings — 2.11 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sparta Praha 2.30 PPG, Plzen 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 55% versus Plzen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 60% | Plzen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.50 xG and Plzen 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.275 / defence 1.006 | Plzen attack 0.817 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.282. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 Sparta Praha games / 20 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 48% | Draw 26% | Plzen 27%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Plzen 3.70. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Praha 50% | Plzen 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 48% | Draw 26% | Plzen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Sparta Praha 1.50 / Plzen 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.275 / def 1.006 | Plzen attack 0.817 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Plzen xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Plzen?
Sparta Praha 2 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Plzen part of?
Sparta Praha vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 48% chance of winning, Plzen a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sparta Praha and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and Plzen in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.27x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.87
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.55
1.05
Plzen xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.05 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 14W 4D 2L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 16W 2D 2L from 20 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Praha on 2.30 PPG, Plzen on 2.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.78 PPG from 9 outings (8W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Sparta Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 6W 1D 2L from 9 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.85 scored and 0.65 conceded. Sparta Praha's scoring rate against Plzen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Plzen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 14W 4D 2L in their last 20 games (2.30 PPG), while Plzen have gone 16W 2D 2L in their last 20 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Plzen away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.78 PPG; Plzen away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Plzen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Praha
3
Draws
5
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 2, Plzen have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 0-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 44%, Plzen 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sparta Praha) and 33% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Plzen in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 33% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 33% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Plzen tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Plzen in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha and Plzen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Sparta Praha and Plzen drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.50 xG and Plzen 1.05 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.27 / defence 1.01 against Plzen attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 48% | Draw 26% | Plzen 27%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, Plzen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 2.30 PPG, Plzen 2.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.