Sparta Praha 3-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to epet ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at epet ARENA, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Sparta Praha) versus 1.50 (Hradec Králové). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 5 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Hradec Králové, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 62% versus Hradec Králové 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 62% | Hradec Králové 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.150 / defence 1.023 | Hradec Králové attack 0.915 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.167. Data: 50 Sparta Praha games / 50 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 45% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 29%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 3.45. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Praha 80% | Hradec Králové 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 45% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Sparta Praha 1.44 / Hradec Králové 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.150 / def 1.023 | Hradec Králové attack 0.915 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Hradec Králové xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha 3 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 45% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Record (5 meetings): Sparta Praha 5W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.15x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.80
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
Hradec Králové xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.09 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Praha come into this having played 55 games, going 39W 10D 6L for 2.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.40 PPG from 55 outings (21W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sparta Praha's home form reads 20W 6D 2L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.04 points per game from 28 outings (7W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.13 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 39W 10D 6L in their last 55 games (2.31 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 21W 14D 20L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.36 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
0
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 64%, Hradec Králové 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sparta Praha) and 36% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 36%; Hradec Králové in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 36% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 36% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 3-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hradec Králové landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Hradec Králové attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 45% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 29%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, Hradec Králové 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.