Sparta Praha 1-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena plays host to Sparta Praha versus České Budějovice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 0D 0L this season (3 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
České Budějovice have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Sparta Praha's 2.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 40% versus České Budějovice 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 60% | České Budějovice 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.23 xG and České Budějovice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.388 / defence 0.963 | České Budějovice attack 0.938 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.185. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.388 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Sparta Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Sparta Praha games / 5 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 64% | Draw 19% | České Budějovice 17%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | České Budějovice 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sparta Praha 33% | České Budějovice 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 64% | Draw 19% | České Budějovice 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Sparta Praha 2.23 / České Budějovice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.388 / def 0.963 | České Budějovice attack 0.938 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.07
České Budějovice xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice kick off?
Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice?
Sparta Praha 1 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice part of?
Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 64% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sparta Praha and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and České Budějovice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and České Budějovice in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.94x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.16
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.30
1.07
České Budějovice xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
11%
9.29
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
2%
54.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.07 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Praha come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 1D 0L for 2.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; České Budějovice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Early Season
České Budějovice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Sparta Praha or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Praha go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 4-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 7, České Budějovice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sparta Praha 2-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and České Budějovice?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 40%, České Budějovice 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sparta Praha) and 40% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; České Budějovice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 40% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 40% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out České Budějovice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat České Budějovice 1-0 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.23 xG and České Budějovice 1.07 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.39 / defence 0.96 against České Budějovice attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 64% | Draw 19% | České Budějovice 17%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, České Budějovice 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
České Budějovice's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Praha managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. České Budějovice managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.