Sparta Praha 5-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena plays host to Sparta Praha versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Praha have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 8W 1D 0L at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena — 2.78 PPG. They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 1.40 PPG lead over Bohemians 1905 (2.30 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Praha 59% and Bohemians 1905 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sparta Praha 65% | Bohemians 1905 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.63 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.114 / defence 0.945 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.691 / defence 1.719. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.305. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.719 — this is suppressing Sparta Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Sparta Praha games / 17 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 75% | Draw 15% | Bohemians 1905 10%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Bohemians 1905 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 44% | Bohemians 1905 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 75% | Draw 15% | Bohemians 1905 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 53% | xG Sparta Praha 2.63 / Bohemians 1905 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.114 / def 0.945 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.691 / def 1.719 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bohemians 1905 xG
53%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha 5 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 75% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.11x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 2.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.69x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.70
10%
10.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.48
0.85
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.70
15%
Draw
10.24
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
7%
13.89
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
1%
142.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.85 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha come into this having played 17 games, going 12W 3D 2L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (5W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Praha's home form reads 8W 1D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.29 PPG overall — Sparta Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 0.56 points per game from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bohemians 1905's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.47 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 71%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 12W 3D 2L in their last 17 games (2.29 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.78 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
1
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 44%, Bohemians 1905 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Sparta Praha and 78% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Sparta Praha's games and 67% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Sparta Praha's matches and 78% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 5-1 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.63 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.85 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.94 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.69 / defence 1.72, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 75% | Draw 15% | Bohemians 1905 10%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 65%, Bohemians 1905 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.