Slovan Liberec 2-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion u Nisy, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 0D 5L this season (6 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sigma Olomouc arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 40% versus Sigma Olomouc 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 40% | Sigma Olomouc 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 0.94 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.576 / defence 1.270 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.869 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.379. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.576 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sigma Olomouc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Slovan Liberec games / 10 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 23% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 51%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 1.96. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 17% | Sigma Olomouc 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 23% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Slovan Liberec 0.94 / Sigma Olomouc 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.576 / def 1.270 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.869 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sigma Olomouc xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Slovan Liberec 2 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 23% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.58x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.87x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
23%
4.29
26%
3.87
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.46
1.52
Sigma Olomouc xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
5%
19.64
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.52 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 2W 2D 6L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sigma Olomouc are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovan Liberec.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L).
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sigma Olomouc's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 2.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 0.60 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 1-4 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Slovan Liberec 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 20%, Sigma Olomouc 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Slovan Liberec) and 60% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 80% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 60% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 60% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Sigma Olomouc 2-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 0.94 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.52 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.58 / defence 1.27 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 23% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 51%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Slovan Liberec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 40%, Sigma Olomouc 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Slovan Liberec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.