Slovan Liberec 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc meet at Stadion U Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion U Nisy, Slovan Liberec have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Slovan Liberec, 4 for Sigma Olomouc and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 44% versus Sigma Olomouc 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 46% | Sigma Olomouc 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.50 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.140 / defence 0.804 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.061 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.284. Data: 46 Slovan Liberec games / 46 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 45% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Sigma Olomouc 3.85. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 40% | Sigma Olomouc 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 45% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.50 / Sigma Olomouc 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.140 / def 0.804 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.061 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Stadion U Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 45% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (9 meetings): Slovan Liberec 2W | Draws 3 | Sigma Olomouc 4W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.06x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.48
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.59
1.09
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.09 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 19W 14D 15L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 17W 14D 17L from 48 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.35 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L).
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 9D 9L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 19W 14D 15L in their last 48 games (1.48 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.58 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 1-4 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Slovan Liberec 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 38%, Sigma Olomouc 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Slovan Liberec) and 46% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 29% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 54% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 46% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.50 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.09 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.14 / defence 0.80 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 45% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 26%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 46%, Sigma Olomouc 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.48 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.