Slovan Liberec 0-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slovan Liberec face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hradec Králové travel to Stadion u Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Slovan Liberec stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Slovan Liberec's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slovan Liberec 1.30 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 1 for Hradec Králové and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Slovan Liberec 1–1 Hradec Králové — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 60% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 58% | Hradec Králové 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.72 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.314 / defence 1.003 | Hradec Králové attack 0.795 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.251. Slovan Liberec carry an above-average attack rating of 1.314 — their 1.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Hradec Králové's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 58 games and Hradec Králové's last 58.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 54% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 21%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.87 | Draw 3.92 | Hradec Králové 4.78. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Hradec Králové's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 54% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.72 / Hradec Králové 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.314 / def 1.003 | Hradec Králové attack 0.795 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 54% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 58 games and Hradec Králové's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
54%
1.87
25%
3.92
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.72
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
26.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.00 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 16D 24L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.31 PPG from 62 outings (22W 15D 25L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.32 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 15W 7D 9L across their last 31 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.13 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 22W 15D 25L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.68 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won Hradec Králové 0-4 Slovan Liberec.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Slovan Liberec 2-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 41% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 58%, Hradec Králové 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Slovan Liberec) and 45% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 48% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 45% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 68% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovan Liberec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 29, as Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.72 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.31 / defence 1.00 against Hradec Králové attack 0.80 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 54% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 21%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 58%, Hradec Králové 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.32 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.