Slovan Liberec 0-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Hradec Králové travel to Stadion u Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Slovan Liberec's home record at Stadion u Nisy: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at Stadion u Nisy than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slovan Liberec 1.30 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slovan Liberec, 1 for Hradec Králové and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 60% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 58% | Hradec Králové 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.72 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.314 / defence 1.003 | Hradec Králové attack 0.795 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.251. Slovan Liberec carry an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Slovan Liberec games / 58 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 54% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 21%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 4.76. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 60% | Hradec Králové 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 54% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.72 / Hradec Králové 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.314 / def 1.003 | Hradec Králové attack 0.795 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 54% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Record (4 meetings): Slovan Liberec 2W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
54%
1.87
25%
3.92
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.72
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
26.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.00 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 16D 24L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.31 PPG from 62 outings (22W 15D 25L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.32 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 15W 7D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.13 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 22W 15D 25L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.68 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 1-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 58%, Hradec Králové 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Slovan Liberec) and 45% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 48% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 45% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovan Liberec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 29, as Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.72 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.31 / defence 1.00 against Hradec Králové attack 0.80 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 54% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 21%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 58%, Hradec Králové 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.32 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.