Slovan Liberec 0-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec at Stadion u Nisy this season: 4W 0D 5L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Slovan Liberec, 1.70 for České Budějovice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Slovan Liberec 0W, České Budějovice 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with České Budějovice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 44% versus České Budějovice 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 44% | České Budějovice 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.45 xG and České Budějovice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.718 / defence 1.037 | České Budějovice attack 0.737 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.304. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Slovan Liberec games / 18 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 48% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | České Budějovice 3.85. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 22% | České Budějovice 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 48% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.45 / České Budějovice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.718 / def 1.037 | České Budějovice attack 0.737 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.00
České Budějovice xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 48% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
Record (1 meetings): Slovan Liberec 0W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (0.72) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.74x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.78
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.45
1.00
České Budějovice xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.00 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 7W 2D 9L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice's form line: 7W 3D 8L from 18 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.33 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L).
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.44 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 7W 2D 9L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or České Budějovice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.50 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 4-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 25%, České Budějovice 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Slovan Liberec) and 62% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 50% of games; České Budějovice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 62% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 62% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovan Liberec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice finished level at 0-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.45 xG and České Budějovice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.5 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.72 / defence 1.04 against České Budějovice attack 0.74 / defence 1.50, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 48% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 26%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 44%, České Budějovice 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
České Budějovice's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.28 PPG, České Budějovice 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.