Slovácko 0-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Slavia Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Slavia Praha at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 8W 0D 1L from 9 home games — 2.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Slovácko) versus 2.30 (Slavia Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 63% versus Slavia Praha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Slovácko 74% | Slavia Praha 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.47 xG and Slavia Praha 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.109 / defence 1.014 | Slavia Praha attack 1.180 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.294. Data: 19 Slovácko games / 20 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 36% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 40%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Slavia Praha 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 44% | Slavia Praha 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 36% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Slovácko 1.47 / Slavia Praha 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.109 / def 1.014 | Slavia Praha attack 1.180 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Slavia Praha xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Slovácko vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Slavia Praha?
Slovácko 0 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Slovácko vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Slavia Praha part of?
Slovácko vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 36% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Slovácko and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Slavia Praha in?
Slovácko (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (1.11) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
36%
2.76
24%
4.13
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.02
1.55
Slavia Praha xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.99
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.55 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 19 games, going 12W 3D 4L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.37 PPG from 19 outings (14W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 2.05 PPG, Slavia Praha on 2.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 8W 0D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.05 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.00 points per game from 9 outings (5W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.63 scored and 0.79 conceded. Slovácko's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Slovácko have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Slavia Praha in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 12W 3D 4L in their last 19 games (2.05 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 14W 3D 2L in their last 19 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slovácko's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.67 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2023, when Slavia Praha won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Slovácko
1
Draws
9
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Slavia Praha 5-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 44%, Slavia Praha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Slovácko and 67% for Slavia Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Slovácko's recent matches and 56% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Slovácko's matches and 67% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Slovácko and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Slovácko 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Slovácko 0-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.47 xG and Slavia Praha 1.55 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Slavia Praha attack 1.18 / defence 1.07, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 36% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 40%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 74%, Slavia Praha 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 2.05 PPG, Slavia Praha 2.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slavia Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.