Slovácko 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Slovácko have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Slovácko) versus 1.20 (Sigma Olomouc). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 54% versus Sigma Olomouc 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 62% | Sigma Olomouc 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.20 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.957 / defence 0.927 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.820 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.153. Data: 26 Slovácko games / 26 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 43% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 27%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Sigma Olomouc 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 50% | Sigma Olomouc 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 43% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Slovácko 1.20 / Sigma Olomouc 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.957 / def 0.927 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.820 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sigma Olomouc xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Slovácko 1 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 43% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc in?
Slovácko (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.96) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.38
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.08
0.88
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.88 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovácko's recent record stands at 15W 5D 6L from 26 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 9L across 26 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovácko by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sigma Olomouc heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 9W 1D 2L from 12 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.38 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 15W 5D 6L in their last 26 games (1.92 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 8W 9D 9L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Slovácko's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.33 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sigma Olomouc have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Slovácko's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovácko
4
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 42%, Sigma Olomouc 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Slovácko) and 42% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Slovácko's recent matches and 42% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Slovácko's recent games and 42% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.20 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.88 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 43% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 27%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 62%, Sigma Olomouc 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.