Slovácko 1-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Pardubice at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Slovácko are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Slovácko, 0 for Pardubice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Pardubice trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 58% versus Pardubice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 65% | Pardubice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 2.21 xG and Pardubice 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.837 / defence 1.118 | Pardubice attack 1.036 / defence 1.589. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.405. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.589 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Slovácko games / 44 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 50% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 27%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Pardubice 3.70. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.84 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 60% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 50% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Slovácko 2.21 / Pardubice 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.837 / def 1.118 | Pardubice attack 1.036 / def 1.589 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Pardubice xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Pardubice kick off?
Slovácko vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Slovácko 1 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Slovácko vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Pardubice part of?
Slovácko vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 50% chance of winning, Pardubice a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Slovácko and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Record (1 meetings): Slovácko 0W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.84x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.29
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.84
1.63
Pardubice xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.71
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
11%
9.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
3%
33.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.63 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 48 games, going 25W 9D 14L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.94 PPG from 48 outings (12W 9D 27L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 16W 2D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (7W 1D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.08 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 25W 9D 14L in their last 48 games (1.75 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 12W 9D 27L in their last 48 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Pardubice away?
Slovácko's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.17 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pardubice in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 48%, Pardubice 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Slovácko and 78% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Slovácko's games and 65% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovácko vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Slovácko's matches and 78% of Pardubice's.
Do Slovácko and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Pardubice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Pardubice 1-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 2.21 xG and Pardubice 1.63 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Pardubice landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Pardubice attack 1.04 / defence 1.59, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 50% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 27%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 65%, Pardubice 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pardubice's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.