Slovácko 2-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Slovácko welcome FK Jablonec to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 1L across 8 games at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (2.62 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Their home PPG of 2.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 61% versus FK Jablonec 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 72% | FK Jablonec 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 2.02 xG and FK Jablonec 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.039 / defence 0.924 | FK Jablonec attack 0.642 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.307. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Slovácko games / 18 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 67% | Draw 20% | FK Jablonec 13%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | FK Jablonec 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 38% | FK Jablonec 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 67% | Draw 20% | FK Jablonec 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Slovácko 2.02 / FK Jablonec 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.039 / def 0.924 | FK Jablonec attack 0.642 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.78
FK Jablonec xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovácko vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Slovácko 2 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovácko vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 67% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Slovácko and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and FK Jablonec in?
Slovácko (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (1.04) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
67%
1.50
20%
4.98
13%
7.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.80
0.78
FK Jablonec xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
7.50
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
2%
56.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Slovácko and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.78 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovácko come into this having played 18 games, going 11W 3D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 0.89 PPG from 18 outings (3W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Slovácko's home form reads 7W 0D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.72 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovácko have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 11W 3D 4L in their last 18 games (2.00 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 3W 7D 8L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slovácko's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.62 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Slovácko or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Slovácko's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovácko
3
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 38%, FK Jablonec 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Slovácko and 62% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slovácko's recent matches and 38% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Slovácko's matches and 62% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Slovácko and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out FK Jablonec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat FK Jablonec 2-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 2.02 xG and FK Jablonec 0.78 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against FK Jablonec attack 0.64 / defence 1.40, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 67% | Draw 20% | FK Jablonec 13%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 72%, FK Jablonec 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.