Slovácko 3-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovácko have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Slovácko have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
Baník Ostrava (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Slovácko's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovácko 55% and Baník Ostrava 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 61% | Baník Ostrava 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.31 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.075 / defence 0.864 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.025 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Data: 30 Slovácko games / 30 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 44% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 27%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Baník Ostrava 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 40% | Baník Ostrava 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 44% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Slovácko 1.31 / Baník Ostrava 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.075 / def 0.864 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.025 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Baník Ostrava xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Slovácko 3 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 44% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slovácko and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava in?
Slovácko (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (1.07) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.02x) against Slovácko's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.49
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.27
0.96
Baník Ostrava xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.96 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slovácko's recent record stands at 18W 5D 8L from 31 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 8L across 31 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Slovácko against 1.65 for Baník Ostrava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 12W 1D 2L from 15 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 7W 4D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovácko are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.77 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 68%.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 18W 5D 8L in their last 31 games (1.90 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 14W 9D 8L in their last 31 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slovácko's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.47 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 6-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Slovácko 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 40%, Baník Ostrava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Slovácko and 67% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Slovácko's recent matches and 67% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Slovácko's matches and 67% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Slovácko and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Baník Ostrava 3-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Championship Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.31 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.96 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 44% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 27%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 61%, Baník Ostrava 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.90 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.