Slovácko 0-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 12 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovácko have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Slovácko have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Baník Ostrava (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Baník Ostrava are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovácko 54% and Baník Ostrava 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 62% | Baník Ostrava 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.26 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.052 / defence 1.004 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.140 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.167. Data: 24 Slovácko games / 24 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 35% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 39%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Baník Ostrava 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 50% | Baník Ostrava 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 35% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Slovácko 1.26 / Baník Ostrava 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.052 / def 1.004 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.140 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Baník Ostrava xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Slovácko 0 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 35% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Slovácko and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava in?
Slovácko (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (1.05) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.14x) against Slovácko's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
35%
2.86
26%
3.79
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.59
1.33
Baník Ostrava xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.33 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slovácko's recent record stands at 14W 4D 6L from 24 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 4L across 24 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for Slovácko against 1.92 for Baník Ostrava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 9W 0D 2L from 11 games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 7W 3D 1L across 11 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Slovácko are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 2.08 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 71%.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 14W 4D 6L in their last 24 games (1.92 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 13W 7D 4L in their last 24 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slovácko's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.45 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 6-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Slovácko 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 46%, Baník Ostrava 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Slovácko and 64% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Slovácko's recent matches and 64% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Slovácko's matches and 64% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Slovácko and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovácko's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko and Baník Ostrava finished level at 0-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.26 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.33 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.14 / defence 1.03, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 35% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 62%, Baník Ostrava 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.92 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.