Slavia Praha 4-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Slavia Praha welcome Zlin to Fortuna Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha's home record at Fortuna Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Slavia Praha are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slavia Praha, 0 for Zlin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Zlin trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 42% versus Zlin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 53% | Zlin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.74 xG and Zlin 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.156 / defence 0.800 | Zlin attack 0.897 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.328. Data: 31 Slavia Praha games / 31 Zlin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 24% | Zlin 21%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Zlin 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 20% | Zlin 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 24% | Zlin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Slavia Praha 1.74 / Zlin 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.156 / def 0.800 | Zlin attack 0.897 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Zlin xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Zlin kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Zlin kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Zlin?
Slavia Praha 4 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Zlin part of?
Slavia Praha vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 56% chance of winning, Zlin a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Slavia Praha and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Zlin?
Record (2 meetings): Slavia Praha 2W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Zlin in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.23
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.69
0.95
Zlin xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
4%
27.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.95 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slavia Praha's recent record stands at 24W 6D 6L from 36 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 17L across 36 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Slavia Praha have managed 14W 1D 2L from 17 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.19 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Zlin in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 games (2.17 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Zlin away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.53 PPG; Zlin away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Zlin in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Slavia Praha won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
0
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 6, Zlin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Zlin 1-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Zlin?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 29%, Zlin 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Slavia Praha) and 47% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Zlin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 59% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 47% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and Zlin tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Zlin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Zlin 4-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.74 xG and Zlin 0.95 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.16 / defence 0.80 against Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 24% | Zlin 21%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 53%, Zlin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Zlin's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.