Slavia Praha 3-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Slavia Praha welcome Zlin to Sinobo Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Slavia Praha's home record at Sinobo Stadium: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sinobo Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Sinobo Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zlin's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Slavia Praha are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Slavia Praha, 0 for Zlin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Zlin trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 38% versus Zlin 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 52% | Zlin 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.83 xG and Zlin 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.215 / defence 0.693 | Zlin attack 0.752 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.114. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Slavia Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 29 Slavia Praha games / 29 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 67% | Draw 22% | Zlin 11%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Zlin 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 0% | Zlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 67% | Draw 22% | Zlin 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 37% | xG Slavia Praha 1.83 / Zlin 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.215 / def 0.693 | Zlin attack 0.752 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Zlin xG
37%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Zlin kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Zlin kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Zlin?
Slavia Praha 3 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Zlin part of?
Slavia Praha vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 67% chance of winning, Zlin a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Slavia Praha and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Zlin?
Record (1 meetings): Slavia Praha 1W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Zlin in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Zlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
67%
1.48
22%
4.57
11%
9.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.41
0.58
Zlin xG
1.48
67%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
9.29
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
38%
2.65
2%
58.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.58 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slavia Praha's recent record stands at 22W 4D 3L from 29 games, a 2.41 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 15L across 29 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.38 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Slavia Praha have managed 13W 0D 1L from 14 games — 2.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 4D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.24 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Zlin in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 22W 4D 3L in their last 29 games (2.41 PPG), while Zlin have gone 8W 6D 15L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Zlin away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.79 PPG; Zlin away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Zlin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Slavia Praha won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
0
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 6, Zlin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Zlin 1-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Zlin?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 79% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 21%, Zlin 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Slavia Praha) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Zlin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 57% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and Zlin tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Zlin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Zlin 3-0 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.83 xG and Zlin 0.58 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.22 / defence 0.69 against Zlin attack 0.75 / defence 1.33, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 67% | Draw 22% | Zlin 11%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 52%, Zlin 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zlin's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.