Slavia Praha 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Sinobo Stadium to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha at Sinobo Stadium this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sinobo Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 38% versus Bohemians 1905 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 57% | Bohemians 1905 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.51 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.239 / defence 0.859 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.673 / defence 1.699. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.209. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.699 — this is suppressing Slavia Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Slavia Praha games / 21 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 77% | Draw 15% | Bohemians 1905 8%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Bohemians 1905 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 30% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 77% | Draw 15% | Bohemians 1905 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 46% | xG Slavia Praha 2.51 / Bohemians 1905 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.239 / def 0.859 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.673 / def 1.699 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Bohemians 1905 xG
46%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Slavia Praha 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 77% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.51. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.67x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
77%
1.30
15%
6.70
8%
12.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.21
0.70
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.70
15%
Draw
12.09
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
8%
12.28
Win to Nil
38%
2.62
1%
148.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.70 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.43 PPG on a 16W 3D 2L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 6W 3D 12L from 21 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.70 PPG from 10 outings (9W 0D 1L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bohemians 1905's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.33 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 67%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 16W 3D 2L in their last 21 games (2.43 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 3D 12L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.70 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Slavia Praha
0
Draws
0
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 10, Bohemians 1905 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Slavia Praha 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 30%, Bohemians 1905 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Slavia Praha and 80% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 60% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Slavia Praha's matches and 80% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.51 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.70 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slavia Praha fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.67 / defence 1.70, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 77% | Draw 15% | Bohemians 1905 8%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 57%, Bohemians 1905 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.