Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slavia Praha have posted 7W 3D 0L at Fortuna Arena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Slavia Praha: 10 wins from 10 previous clashes against 0 for Baník Ostrava, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 4–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
The historical record gives Slavia Praha a meaningful edge here — 10 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 56% versus Baník Ostrava 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 60% | Baník Ostrava 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.35 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.317 / defence 0.835 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.803 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Slavia Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Slavia Praha games / 40 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 72% | Draw 17% | Baník Ostrava 11%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Baník Ostrava 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 60% | Baník Ostrava 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 72% | Draw 17% | Baník Ostrava 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 49% | xG Slavia Praha 2.35 / Baník Ostrava 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.317 / def 0.835 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.803 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Baník Ostrava xG
49%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Fortuna Arena.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 72% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Record (10 meetings): Slavia Praha 10W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
72%
1.38
17%
5.80
11%
9.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.13
0.78
Baník Ostrava xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
9.51
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
10%
10.45
Win to Nil
33%
3.02
1%
99.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.78 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 32W 11D 2L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 12W 8D 25L from 45 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baník Ostrava.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.57 PPG from 23 outings (18W 5D 0L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 5D 14L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.02 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 32W 11D 2L in their last 45 games (2.38 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 8D 25L in their last 45 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.57 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Slavia Praha
0
Draws
0
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 10, Baník Ostrava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 52%, Baník Ostrava 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Slavia Praha and 48% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 39% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Slavia Praha's matches and 48% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.