Slavia Praha 1-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Baník Ostrava travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Slavia Praha stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Slavia Praha have posted 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Baník Ostrava — last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Baník Ostrava away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.50 PPG (Slavia Praha) versus 2.40 (Baník Ostrava). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Slavia Praha: 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Baník Ostrava, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2024, ended Slavia Praha 1–0 Baník Ostrava — a Slavia Praha win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Slavia Praha and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 41% versus Baník Ostrava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 55% | Baník Ostrava 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.47 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.195 / defence 0.667 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.099 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.198. Baník Ostrava bring a tight defence (rating 0.794, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Slavia Praha's projected output down. Slavia Praha have a tight defence (rating 0.667), which is pulling Baník Ostrava's projected output down. Data: built from Slavia Praha's last 51 games and Baník Ostrava's last 51.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 51% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 22%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.96 | Draw 3.78 | Baník Ostrava 4.46. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Slavia Praha 5 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slavia Praha 30% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 51% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Slavia Praha 1.47 / Baník Ostrava 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.195 / def 0.667 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.099 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Baník Ostrava xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Slavia Praha 1 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 51% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slavia Praha's last 51 games and Baník Ostrava's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.78
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.35
0.88
Baník Ostrava xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
5%
19.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.88 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.52 PPG on a 44W 9D 3L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 27W 10D 19L from 56 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baník Ostrava.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.75 PPG from their last 28 home games (25W 2D 1L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 13W 5D 10L from their last 28 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.61 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Slavia Praha (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slavia Praha
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 44W 9D 3L in their last 56 games (2.52 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 10D 19L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.75 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha have won each of the latest 10 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 5-0 Baník Ostrava.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Slavia Praha
0
Draws
0
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slavia Praha have won 10, Baník Ostrava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 39%, Baník Ostrava 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Slavia Praha and 57% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 54% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Slavia Praha's matches and 57% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 64% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Baník Ostrava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.47 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.88 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.20 / defence 0.67 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.10 / defence 0.79, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 51% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 22%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 55%, Baník Ostrava 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.