Sigma Olomouc 0-3 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Andruv stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Andruv stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Andruv stadion this season.
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.80 for Sparta Praha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Sparta Praha have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Sigma Olomouc's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
It is worth noting that Sparta Praha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 52% versus Sparta Praha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 57% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.95 xG and Sparta Praha 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.259 / defence 0.926 | Sparta Praha attack 1.097 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.231. Sigma Olomouc carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Sigma Olomouc games / 38 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 52% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 23%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Sparta Praha 4.35. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Sparta Praha 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 52% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.95 / Sparta Praha 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.259 / def 0.926 | Sparta Praha attack 1.097 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sparta Praha xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 3 Sparta Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 52% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 2 | Sparta Praha 6W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.26) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.10x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.08
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.20
1.25
Sparta Praha xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
3%
30.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.25 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 42 games, going 20W 8D 14L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.02 PPG from 42 outings (26W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 2.02 for Sparta Praha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 11W 5D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.65 points per game from 20 outings (10W 3D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.93 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 8D 14L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 26W 7D 9L in their last 42 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.90 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-4 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 0-3 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 40%, Sparta Praha 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sigma Olomouc) and 55% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 40% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 55% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 0-3 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.95 xG and Sparta Praha 1.25 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Sparta Praha attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 52% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 23%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 57%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.62 PPG, Sparta Praha 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.