Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Slovácko travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andrův stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andrův stadion.
Slovácko — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 1.70 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Slovácko and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Slovácko winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 40% versus Slovácko 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 43% | Slovácko 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.31 xG and Slovácko 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.798 / defence 0.975 | Slovácko attack 1.093 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.362. Sigma Olomouc's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Sigma Olomouc games / 33 Slovácko games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 34% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 41%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Slovácko 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Slovácko 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 34% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.31 / Slovácko 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.798 / def 0.975 | Slovácko attack 1.093 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Slovácko xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 34% chance of winning, Slovácko a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Record (1 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 0W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.80x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
34%
2.93
25%
3.94
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.76
1.45
Slovácko xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.45 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 11D 14L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.89 PPG from 37 outings (21W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 7W 7D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.70 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 21W 7D 9L in their last 37 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovácko away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.56 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Slovácko in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
2
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Slovácko have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 44%, Slovácko 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sigma Olomouc) and 78% (Slovácko). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 72% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 78% of Slovácko's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.31 xG and Slovácko 1.45 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Slovácko attack 1.09 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 34% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 41%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 43%, Slovácko 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.