Sigma Olomouc 2-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Andrův stadion plays host to Sigma Olomouc versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 4D 2L at Andrův stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Mlada Boleslav in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sigma Olomouc 0W, Mlada Boleslav 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 49% versus Mlada Boleslav 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 47% | Mlada Boleslav 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.92 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.151 / defence 0.903 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.966 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.345. Data: 53 Sigma Olomouc games / 53 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 53% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 22%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 4.55. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 53% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.92 / Mlada Boleslav 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.151 / def 0.903 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.966 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Mlada Boleslav xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 53% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (2 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 0W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 0W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.97x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.94
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.09
1.17
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
3%
31.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.17 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 19W 20D 18L record — D-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 22W 12D 23L from 57 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.37 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (11W 11D 6L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 11W 4D 13L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.54 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 19W 20D 18L in their last 57 games (1.35 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 12D 23L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.57 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 54%, Mlada Boleslav 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sigma Olomouc) and 61% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 61% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 61% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Mlada Boleslav 2-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.92 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.17 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.15 / defence 0.90 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 53% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 22%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 47%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.