Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Hradec Králové travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Andrův stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Hradec Králové and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 46% versus Hradec Králové 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 44% | Hradec Králové 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.42 xG and Hradec Králové 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.028 / defence 0.877 | Hradec Králové attack 1.042 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.374. Data: 48 Sigma Olomouc games / 48 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 30%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Hradec Králové 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.42 / Hradec Králové 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.028 / def 0.877 | Hradec Králové attack 1.042 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Hradec Králové xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 38% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Record (1 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 0W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.15
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.68
1.25
Hradec Králové xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.25 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 18W 16D 18L from 52 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 19L across 52 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.35 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 10W 9D 6L from 25 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 7W 6D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.23 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 16D 18L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 15D 19L in their last 52 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.56 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 52%, Hradec Králové 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sigma Olomouc) and 56% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 52% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 56% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové finished level at 2-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.42 xG and Hradec Králové 1.25 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Hradec Králové attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 30%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 44%, Hradec Králové 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.