Sigma Olomouc 1-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 outings — a 1.83 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 3.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 1D 0L this season (3 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.83 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 5W 0D 2L from 7 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.14 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.14 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.83 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 2.14 (Baník Ostrava). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 83% and Baník Ostrava 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sigma Olomouc 100% | Baník Ostrava 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 2.40 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.379 / defence 1.311 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.888 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.266. Sigma Olomouc carry an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Sigma Olomouc games / 7 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 58% | Draw 19% | Baník Ostrava 23%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.72 | Draw 5.26 | Baník Ostrava 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.88 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 67% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 58% | Draw 19% | Baník Ostrava 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 70% | xG Sigma Olomouc 2.40 / Baník Ostrava 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.379 / def 1.311 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.888 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Baník Ostrava xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 58% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 23% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 3.17 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-0D-2L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.38x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
58%
1.72
19%
5.23
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.88
1.48
Baník Ostrava xG
1.72
58%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
9%
11.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
2%
48.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.48 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 3W 2D 1L from 6 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 5W 0D 1L across 6 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sigma Olomouc heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baník Ostrava's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 3.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 2.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Baník Ostrava in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 2.33 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Baník Ostrava 2-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sigma Olomouc at 67%, Baník Ostrava at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sigma Olomouc and 100% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 67% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 100% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava finished level at 1-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 2.40 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.48 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 / defence 1.31 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.89 / defence 1.29, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 58% | Draw 19% | Baník Ostrava 23%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 92% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 100%, Baník Ostrava 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.