Plzen 2-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Plzen (all games): 8W 0D 1L across 9 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.67 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.78 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 5W 0D 0L at Doosan Aréna — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zlin have collected 1.00 PPG across 9 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.56 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.67 in Plzen's favour (2.67 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Plzen — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Zlin — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 56% versus Zlin 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Plzen 56% | Zlin 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.25 xG and Zlin 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.150 / defence 1.007 | Zlin attack 0.807 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.324. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Plzen games / 9 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 64% | Draw 19% | Zlin 17%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Zlin 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 80% | Zlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 64% | Draw 19% | Zlin 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 59% | xG Plzen 2.25 / Zlin 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.150 / def 1.007 | Zlin attack 0.807 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Plzen (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Zlin xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Zlin kick off?
Plzen vs Zlin kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Plzen 2 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Plzen vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Zlin part of?
Plzen vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 64% chance of winning, Zlin a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plzen and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Zlin in?
Plzen (all comps): 8W-0D-1L in 9 | 2.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Zlin (all comps): 3W-0D-6L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.56 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.81x) against Plzen's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.21
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.33
1.08
Zlin xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
11%
9.51
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
2%
56.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Plzen and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Plzen and 1.08 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.67 PPG on a 8W 0D 1L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 3W 0D 6L from 9 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Plzen have posted 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Zlin travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.33 scored and 2.56 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Zlin in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 8W 0D 1L in their last 9 games (2.67 PPG), while Zlin have gone 3W 0D 6L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Zlin away?
Plzen's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 3.00 PPG; Zlin away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Plzen or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Zlin in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Zlin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 1-7 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Plzen
0
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Zlin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Zlin 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Zlin?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Zlin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 75%, Zlin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Plzen and 75% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Plzen's games and 50% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Plzen's matches and 75% of Zlin's.
Do Plzen and Zlin tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zlin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Zlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Zlin 2-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.25 xG and Zlin 1.08 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against Zlin attack 0.81 / defence 1.42, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 64% | Draw 19% | Zlin 17%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 56%, Zlin 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Zlin's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.