Plzen 3-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Plzen (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 6W 2D 2L at Doosan Aréna — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zlin have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Plzen's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Plzen, who have won 5 of the last 5 meetings against Zlin — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 7–1 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Plzen — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Zlin — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Plzen 62% and Zlin 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 64% | Zlin 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.17 xG and Zlin 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.180 / defence 1.035 | Zlin attack 0.884 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.272. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Plzen games / 51 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 59% | Draw 23% | Zlin 18%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Zlin 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | Zlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 59% | Draw 23% | Zlin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Plzen 2.17 / Zlin 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.180 / def 1.035 | Zlin attack 0.884 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Plzen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Zlin xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Zlin kick off?
Plzen vs Zlin kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Plzen 3 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Plzen vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Zlin part of?
Plzen vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 59% chance of winning, Zlin a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Plzen and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
Record (5 meetings): Plzen 5W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Plzen and Zlin in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Zlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.88x) against Plzen's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.43
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.33
1.16
Zlin xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
2%
47.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Plzen and 1.16 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 31W 10D 15L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 12W 19D 25L from 56 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Plzen have posted 1.89 PPG from 28 outings (16W 5D 7L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 11D 15L from 28 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.23 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Zlin in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Zlin in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 31W 10D 15L in their last 56 games (1.84 PPG), while Zlin have gone 12W 19D 25L in their last 56 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Zlin away?
Plzen's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.89 PPG; Zlin away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Zlin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 1-7 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Plzen
0
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Zlin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Zlin 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Zlin?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 64%, Zlin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Plzen and 54% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Plzen's games and 54% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Plzen's matches and 54% of Zlin's.
Do Plzen and Zlin tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zlin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Zlin 3-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.17 xG and Zlin 1.16 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zlin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against Zlin attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 59% | Draw 23% | Zlin 18%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 64%, Zlin 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.