Plzen 0-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Plzen welcome Sparta Praha to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 9W 1D 0L at Doosan Aréna — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Plzen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 44% versus Sparta Praha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 52% | Sparta Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.86 xG and Sparta Praha 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.286 / defence 0.649 | Sparta Praha attack 1.170 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.406. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen's defence rating of 0.649 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Plzen games / 43 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 53% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 19%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Sparta Praha 5.26. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 50% | Sparta Praha 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 53% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Plzen 1.86 / Sparta Praha 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.286 / def 0.649 | Sparta Praha attack 1.170 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Plzen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sparta Praha xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Plzen 0 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Sparta Praha part of?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 53% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Plzen and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Sparta Praha in?
Plzen (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.29) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
53%
1.87
28%
3.59
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.93
1.07
Sparta Praha xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
3%
34.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Plzen and 1.07 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 37W 9D 2L from 48 games, a 2.50 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 28W 12D 8L across 48 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sparta Praha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 21W 2D 0L from 23 games — 2.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 11W 6D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.00 scored and 1.15 conceded. Sparta Praha's attacking output running into Plzen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 37W 9D 2L in their last 48 games (2.50 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 28W 12D 8L in their last 48 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sparta Praha away?
Plzen's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.83 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Sparta Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Plzen
3
Draws
2
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 5, Sparta Praha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 0-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 74% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 44%, Sparta Praha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Plzen and 65% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 30%; Sparta Praha in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Plzen's recent matches and 48% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Plzen's matches and 65% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Plzen and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Praha defy the odds to beat Plzen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Plzen 0-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.86 xG and Sparta Praha 1.07 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plzen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.65 against Sparta Praha attack 1.17 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 53% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 19%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 52%, Sparta Praha 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 2.00. Form was overturned, with Sparta Praha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.