Plzen 3-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Slovan Liberec at Doosan Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 5W 3D 2L at Doosan Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 2.00 PPG versus Slovan Liberec's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plzen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slovan Liberec in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Plzen have won 3, Slovan Liberec 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 56% versus Slovan Liberec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Slovan Liberec 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.40 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.127 / defence 1.101 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.291 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.211. Slovan Liberec have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Plzen games / 50 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 31% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 45%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Slovan Liberec 2.22. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 60% | Slovan Liberec 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 31% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Plzen 1.40 / Slovan Liberec 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.127 / def 1.101 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.291 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Slovan Liberec xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Plzen vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Plzen 3 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Plzen vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 31% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Plzen and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
Record (7 meetings): Plzen 3W | Draws 2 | Slovan Liberec 2W.
What form are Plzen and Slovan Liberec in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.13) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
31%
3.25
25%
4.07
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.12
1.72
Slovan Liberec xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
6%
18.16
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Plzen and 1.72 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 31W 9D 12L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec's form line: 21W 16D 15L from 52 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovan Liberec.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.04 PPG from 26 outings (16W 5D 5L).
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 9W 8D 9L from 26 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.58 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 31W 9D 12L in their last 52 games (1.96 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 21W 16D 15L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Plzen's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.04 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Plzen
2
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 5, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 62%, Slovan Liberec 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Plzen) and 54% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 31%; Slovan Liberec in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Plzen's games and 54% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Plzen's recent games and 54% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slovan Liberec 3-1 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.40 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.72 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.13 / defence 1.10 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.29 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 31% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 45%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Slovan Liberec 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.52. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.