Plzen 3-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Baník Ostrava make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Doosan Aréna, Plzen have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Plzen's 2.80 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Baník Ostrava's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 44% versus Baník Ostrava 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 50% | Baník Ostrava 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.224 / defence 0.623 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.866 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.375. Baník Ostrava's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Plzen's defence rating of 0.623 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Plzen games / 42 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 51% | Draw 33% | Baník Ostrava 16%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.96 | Draw 3.03 | Baník Ostrava 6.25. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 40% | Baník Ostrava 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 51% | Draw 33% | Baník Ostrava 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Plzen 1.45 / Baník Ostrava 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.224 / def 0.623 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.866 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Plzen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Baník Ostrava xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Plzen 3 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 51% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 16% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Plzen and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in?
Plzen (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plzen's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (0.87x) against Plzen's defence (0.62x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
51%
1.97
33%
3.00
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.19
0.74
Baník Ostrava xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
4%
26.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Plzen and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Plzen and 0.74 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.48 PPG on a 35W 9D 2L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 18W 15D 13L from 46 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baník Ostrava.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.82 PPG from 22 outings (20W 2D 0L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 9D 6L from 22 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plzen are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.67 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 70%.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 35W 9D 2L in their last 46 games (2.48 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 18W 15D 13L in their last 46 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Plzen's home record (2.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.82 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Plzen or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 41%, Baník Ostrava 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Plzen) and 54% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Plzen's recent matches and 64% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Plzen's matches and 54% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Plzen and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 3-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.74 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.22 / defence 0.62 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.87 / defence 0.77, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 51% | Draw 33% | Baník Ostrava 16%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 50%, Baník Ostrava 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.