Pardubice vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Teplice (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Teplice.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Pardubice and Teplice meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Pardubice (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Teplice away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Teplice arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pardubice have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Teplice, who have claimed 5 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 3 draws.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Teplice have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Pardubice — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Teplice — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 71% and Teplice 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 55% | Teplice 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.27 xG and Teplice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.818 / defence 1.103 | Teplice attack 0.941 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.361. Data: 36 Pardubice games / 36 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 34% | Draw 26% | Teplice 40%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights