Pardubice 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Teplice meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Teplice, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Teplice have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Teplice — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 47% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 45% | Teplice 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.87 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.797 / defence 1.151 | Teplice attack 0.784 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.109. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Pardubice games / 53 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 35% | Teplice 36%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Teplice 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 60% | Teplice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 35% | Teplice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Pardubice 0.87 / Teplice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.797 / def 1.151 | Teplice attack 0.784 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Teplice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Teplice xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Teplice kick off?
Pardubice vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Pardubice vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Teplice part of?
Pardubice vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 29% chance of winning, Teplice a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Pardubice and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
Record (9 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 2 | Teplice 5W.
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.80x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.78x) against Pardubice's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
29%
3.44
35%
2.88
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Pardubice xG
Total xG
1.87
1.00
Teplice xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.00 for Teplice, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice's recent record stands at 13W 14D 31L from 58 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 25L across 58 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Pardubice against 1.19 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 9W 8D 11L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 5W 11D 12L across 28 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.10 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 13W 14D 31L in their last 58 games (0.91 PPG), while Teplice have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Teplice away?
Pardubice's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.25 PPG; Teplice away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Teplice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 50%, Teplice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Pardubice) and 39% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 32% of games; Teplice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pardubice's recent matches and 50% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Pardubice's recent games and 39% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Teplice tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Teplice in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 24, as Pardubice and Teplice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.87 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Teplice attack 0.78 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 35% | Teplice 36%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 45%, Teplice 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.91 PPG, Teplice 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.