Pardubice vs Plzen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Plzen at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plzen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pardubice at 1.40 PPG versus Plzen's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Pardubice's 2 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2026, ended 2–1 with Pardubice winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Plzen in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 69% versus Plzen 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 58% | Plzen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.38 xG and Plzen 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 1.030 / defence 1.030 | Plzen attack 1.446 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Pardubice games / 43 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 26% | Draw 26% | Plzen 48%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Plzen 2.08. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 80% | Plzen 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 26% | Draw 26% | Plzen 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Pardubice 1.38 / Plzen 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 1.030 / def 1.030 | Plzen attack 1.446 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Plzen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Plzen xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Plzen kick off?
Pardubice vs Plzen is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Plzen part of?
Pardubice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 26% chance of winning, Plzen a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Pardubice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 2 | Plzen 6W.
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (1.03) and Plzen's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
26%
3.85
26%
3.85
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Pardubice xG
Total xG
3.29
1.91
Plzen xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
15%
6.77
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
4%
26.06
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.91 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Pardubice have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 16W 10D 19L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 22W 11D 12L from 45 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 10W 6D 6L from 22 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.80 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plzen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 16W 10D 19L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Plzen have gone 22W 11D 12L in their last 45 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.23 PPG; Plzen away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Plzen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
2
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Plzen have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Plzen 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 73%, Plzen 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Pardubice) and 64% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 46%; Plzen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Pardubice's recent matches and 36% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Pardubice's matches and 64% of Plzen's.
Do Pardubice and Plzen tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Plzen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.