Pardubice 1-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Pardubice versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's home record at Stadion Ďolíček: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FK Jablonec arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 53% versus FK Jablonec 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 62% | FK Jablonec 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.09 xG and FK Jablonec 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.683 / defence 1.124 | FK Jablonec attack 1.122 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.355. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Pardubice games / 40 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 21% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 49%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | FK Jablonec 2.04. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 40% | FK Jablonec 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 21% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Pardubice 1.09 / FK Jablonec 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.683 / def 1.124 | FK Jablonec attack 1.122 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.71
FK Jablonec xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Pardubice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Pardubice 1 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Pardubice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs FK Jablonec part of?
Pardubice vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 21% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pardubice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and FK Jablonec in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.68) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.12x) against Pardubice's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
21%
4.69
30%
3.35
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.80
1.71
FK Jablonec xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
4%
25.89
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Pardubice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.71 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice come into this having played 45 games, going 10W 10D 25L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.04 PPG from 45 outings (9W 20D 16L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Pardubice against 1.04 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Pardubice's home form reads 4W 8D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (3W 9D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 10W 10D 25L in their last 45 games (0.89 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 9W 20D 16L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or FK Jablonec away?
Pardubice's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.95 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 3-0 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
1
Draws
7
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 38%, FK Jablonec 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pardubice) and 48% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 48% of games; FK Jablonec in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Pardubice's recent matches and 52% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pardubice's recent games and 48% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat FK Jablonec 1-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.09 xG and FK Jablonec 1.71 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.68 / defence 1.12 against FK Jablonec attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 21% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 49%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 62%, FK Jablonec 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.89 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.