Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Zlin at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Lokotrans Aréna this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Aréna.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Mlada Boleslav have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mlada Boleslav, 0 for Zlin and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mlada Boleslav 57% and Zlin 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 59% | Zlin 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.89 xG and Zlin 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.885 / defence 0.761 | Zlin attack 0.791 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.222. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Mlada Boleslav games / 59 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 64% | Draw 23% | Zlin 13%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Zlin 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 40% | Zlin 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 64% | Draw 23% | Zlin 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 45% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.89 / Zlin 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.885 / def 0.761 | Zlin attack 0.791 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Zlin xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 64% chance of winning, Zlin a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Record (3 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 2W | Draws 1 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (0.89) and Zlin's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
64%
1.56
23%
4.38
13%
7.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.62
0.74
Zlin xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
7.61
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
2%
50.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.74 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 15D 25L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Zlin's form line: 14W 19D 30L from 63 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.33 PPG, Zlin on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.48 PPG from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 12D 17L from 31 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.25 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 63%.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 23W 15D 25L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while Zlin have gone 14W 19D 30L in their last 63 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Zlin away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.48 PPG; Zlin away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 55%, Zlin 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mlada Boleslav) and 58% (Zlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Zlin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 61% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 58% of Zlin's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Zlin tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Zlin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Zlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav and Zlin finished level at 1-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.89 xG and Zlin 0.74 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.89 / defence 0.76 against Zlin attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 64% | Draw 23% | Zlin 13%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 59%, Zlin 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.33 PPG, Zlin 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.