Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Aréna: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Teplice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Teplice — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 59% versus Teplice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 56% | Teplice 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.32 xG and Teplice 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.128 / defence 1.152 | Teplice attack 0.878 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.241. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Mlada Boleslav games / 57 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Draw 21% | Teplice 19%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Teplice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 80% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Draw 21% | Teplice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.32 / Teplice 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.128 / def 1.152 | Teplice attack 0.878 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Teplice xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 60% chance of winning, Teplice a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Record (3 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 1W | Draws 1 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.13) and Teplice's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.88x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
60%
1.65
21%
4.85
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.57
1.25
Teplice xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
10%
10.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
2%
53.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.25 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 18D 21L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.24 PPG from 59 outings (19W 16D 24L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.24 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 12W 10D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (7W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.17 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 20W 18D 21L in their last 59 games (1.32 PPG), while Teplice have gone 19W 16D 24L in their last 59 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Teplice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.59 PPG; Teplice away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Teplice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Mlada Boleslav, 66% for Teplice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Mlada Boleslav and 72% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 66% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 72% of Teplice's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Teplice tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Teplice in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 2.32 xG and Teplice 1.25 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.13 / defence 1.15 against Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 1.31, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 60% | Draw 21% | Teplice 19%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 56%, Teplice 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.32 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.