Mlada Boleslav 2-3 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lokotrans Aréna plays host to Mlada Boleslav versus Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 5W 1D 2L at Lokotrans Aréna — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pardubice (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Mlada Boleslav. A 1.00 PPG lead over Pardubice (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Pardubice in 86%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mlada Boleslav 56% and Pardubice 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 56% | Pardubice 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.12 xG and Pardubice 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.170 / defence 1.356 | Pardubice attack 0.857 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.247. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Mlada Boleslav games / 16 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 21% | Pardubice 26%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Pardubice 3.85. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 62% | Pardubice 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 21% | Pardubice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.12 / Pardubice 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.170 / def 1.356 | Pardubice attack 0.857 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Pardubice xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice?
Mlada Boleslav 2 - 3 Pardubice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 53% chance of winning, Pardubice a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.17x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.86x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
53%
1.88
21%
4.79
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.57
1.45
Pardubice xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
3%
32.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.45 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 7W 2D 7L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 2W 5D 9L from 16 games, 0.69 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mlada Boleslav are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Mlada Boleslav are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.19 scored and 2.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 7W 2D 7L in their last 16 games (1.44 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Pardubice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.86 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 0-3 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
1
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Pardubice have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Mlada Boleslav, 86% for Pardubice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Mlada Boleslav and 71% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 86% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 71% of Pardubice's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Mlada Boleslav 2-3 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 2.12 xG and Pardubice 1.45 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Pardubice outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.17 / defence 1.36 against Pardubice attack 0.86 / defence 1.30, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 21% | Pardubice 26%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 56%, Pardubice 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.