Mlada Boleslav 3-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mlada Boleslav 1.30 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 2 for Hradec Králové and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 60% versus Hradec Králové 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Hradec Králové 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.06 xG and Hradec Králové 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.987 / defence 0.972 | Hradec Králové attack 0.728 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.173. Hradec Králové's defence strength of 0.728 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Mlada Boleslav games / 45 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 36% | Hradec Králové 26%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Hradec Králové 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 40% | Hradec Králové 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 36% | Hradec Králové 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.06 / Hradec Králové 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.987 / def 0.972 | Hradec Králové attack 0.728 / def 0.728 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Hradec Králové xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 38% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Record (7 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 3W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 0.99x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
38%
2.62
36%
2.79
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
1.89
0.83
Hradec Králové xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.83 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 17W 15D 18L from 50 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 18L across 50 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.32 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 5W 8D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.08 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 14D 18L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Hradec Králové away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.50 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 62%, Hradec Králové 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Mlada Boleslav) and 29% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 38%; Hradec Králové in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 38% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 29% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 3-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.06 xG and Hradec Králové 0.83 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hradec Králové landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Hradec Králové attack 0.73 / defence 0.73, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 38% | Draw 36% | Hradec Králové 26%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Hradec Králové 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.32 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.